XRP has surged more than 550% since November, briefly topping $3 on Tuesday, fuelling hopes for a major rally toward $30 in the ongoing bull cycle. The surge has prompted technical analyst Gert van Lagen to forecast a move as high as $34 by mid-2026, citing bullish chart patterns and market momentum.
Seven-Year Chart Breakout Signals Potential
According to Van Lagen, XRP has broken out of a long-term double-bottom structure, with the neckline around $1.80 serving as a critical support. The price retested this neckline successfully, reinforcing the strength of the breakout. Historical price action shows that such patterns can precede steep gains, with the analyst applying a 2.00 Fibonacci extension to project a $34 target.
The setup bears similarities to XRP’s 2014–2017 cycle, when the token’s price rose over 100,000% from its multi-year base. The current rally mirrors those historic gains, with XRP climbing roughly 1,072% from its 2022 lows, and 1,625% during the 2020–2021 cycle.
Drivers Behind the Current Rally
Unlike the 2020–2021 bull run, which thrived in a near-zero interest rate environment, the 2022–2025 rally has been driven by a series of positive developments. These include progress in Ripple’s legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the relisting of XRP on major exchanges, and optimism surrounding a potential spot XRP exchange-traded fund.
Market forecasts indicate that an ETF approval, estimated to have a 95% probability, could push the token toward $27, bringing it close to Van Lagen’s $34 projection.
Valuation Concerns for XRP Ledger
Despite the optimism, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) shows comparatively modest on-chain growth. Data from DefiLlama reveals a market capitalisation of $190 billion against a total value locked (TVL) of just $85 million. This means XRP’s market cap is approximately 2,200 times larger than its TVL, a stark contrast to Ethereum’s ratio of about 5.6, even though XRP’s valuation is almost 40% of Ethereum’s.
Such a disparity raises concerns over potential overvaluation, with critics pointing to the lack of corresponding on-chain activity to support the market cap.
Profit-Taking Risks Loom
Glassnode data indicates that more than 95% of XRP’s supply is currently in profit, a threshold that in past rallies has preceded significant corrections. Similar conditions in the 2020–2021 and 2022–2025 cycles were followed by sharp sell-offs, as profit-taking intensified.
This high proportion of profitable holders could create sustained selling pressure, posing a challenge to XRP’s momentum and potentially hindering its push toward the $30 mark.
While bullish projections and technical signals suggest the possibility of record-breaking prices, valuation imbalances and historical selling patterns remain critical hurdles. Investors and traders will be watching closely as XRP navigates between its ambitious targets and the realities of market dynamics.
