The long-running legal battle between Ripple and the SEC is entering its final phase, and the crypto community is eager to see how it ends. After years of back-and-forth arguments, multiple court rulings, and shifting regulatory stances, several outcomes are now possible.
Can the SEC Just Walk Away?
All Things XRP, Crypto Analysts chimed into the outcome possibilities. They suggest that the SEC, under potential new leadership in 2025, might withdraw its appeal, leaving Ripple with a $125 million fine and a permanent injunction on institutional XRP sales. While this would provide some clarity, it would still limit Ripple’s operations.
— All Things XRP (@XRP_investing) March 11, 2025
SEC V. RIPPLE: The Final Showdown.
After years of legal battles, what’s next?Here are 5 possible outcomes that may play out.
Let’s unpack them.pic.twitter.com/jad7u5W1QF
Another possible outcome is a settlement where the SEC agrees to reduce the fine, possibly to $75 million, though the injunction would remain a key obstacle. Even if both parties agree, dissolving the injunction requires court approval, making the resolution process more complex. Analysts believe that if Paul Atkins, a potential nominee for SEC chair, is confirmed, he could advocate for this approach.
However, the possibility remains that the Second Circuit could overturn Judge Torres’s ruling, classifying XRP’s programmatic sales as securities. This could lead to fines exceeding $500 million and even stricter restrictions on Ripple.
On the other hand, Ripple’s cross-appeal may allow the company to argue for lifting the injunction while keeping the $125 million fine intact. If successful, institutional XRP sales would resume, a move that could benefit both Ripple and the broader crypto industry. While unlikely, a complete SEC retreat would be the most favorable outcome for Ripple, but analysts believe that judicial oversight makes this scenario improbable.
April 16—A Key Date for XRP
Legal expert Fred Rispoli highlights April 16, 2025, as a key date in the Ripple vs. SEC case but warns that the resolution could stretch beyond mid-2025. While a resolution could come by summer, experts like Jeremy Hogan suggest delays are possible due to the case’s complexity and the SEC’s $125M penalty push. A settlement remains on the table, but the crypto community is braced for a wait potentially until September.
Whereas crypto analyst MetaLawMan, believe that resolution will come before April 16. The SEC can withdraw its appeal in march to pave the way for a dismissal of the case. That means it will straight away go for a settlement.
A Game-Changer for XRP?
Meanwhile, XRP holders remain hopeful for XRP ETFs as the case nears its long-awaited conclusion. April could be a make-or-break moment for both XRP and Ripple. While the case is at its end, many believe SEC’s decision to delay ETF approvals is widely because of the XRP case resolution. There will be a huge inflow waiting for XRP if the case ends by next month.
