Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, has revealed that former President Donald Trump is currently favored to win all six US swing states in the upcoming 2024 election, according to their latest odds. The odds have been heavily skewed in Trump’s favor since October, leading to concerns about potential market manipulation, which Polymarket has since addressed.
$28 Million Whale Identified
Polymarket claims to have identified the individual behind $28 million in pro-Trump trading positions. According to The New York Times DealBook, company representatives stated that the trader is a French citizen with extensive experience in finance and trading. The individual used four separate accounts, including “Fredi9999,” “Theo4,” “PrincessCaro,” and “Michie,” to place these bets.
Polymarket’s investigation found no evidence of market manipulation, noting that the trader spread his bets across smaller positions to avoid influencing the market.
Betting Reflects Personal Sentiment
After contacting the trader, Polymarket reported that the positions were based on personal sentiment regarding the 2024 US presidential election outcome. The platform confirmed that its odds remain in line with those of competing platforms, reinforcing confidence in their accuracy.
Broader Market Trends Corroborated
Other prediction markets, like Kalshi, have reported similar trends. Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s founder, argued that the Polymarket odds reflect true market sentiment rather than manipulation. Data from Kalshi, a US-only platform, also shows Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump’s odds surged in early October after months of narrow margins between the two candidates. Earlier in August, Harris had a significant lead, but by late September, the race had become much closer.
Debate Over Accuracy of Prediction Markets
While critics argue that prediction platforms are less reliable than polls and that traders are making speculative bets, supporters claim these markets offer a more accurate gauge of election sentiment due to the monetary incentives involved.
