The Net Asset Value (NAV) of major Bitcoin treasury firms has seen a dramatic collapse, marking what 10x Research calls the “end of the age of financial magic.” In a report shared with Cointelegraph on Friday, analysts said that while the drop has erased billions in paper wealth, it also presents a rare opportunity for institutional-grade investors to enter the space at more realistic valuations.
According to 10x Research, the boom-and-bust cycle that hit digital asset treasuries (DATs) reflects a structural reset rather than a market failure. “They conjured billions in paper wealth by issuing shares far above their real Bitcoin value, until the illusion vanished,” analysts wrote.
These companies, which include giants such as MicroStrategy (Strategy) and Japan-based Metaplanet, effectively transformed inflated market valuations into real Bitcoin holdings by issuing overpriced shares to retail investors during market euphoria.
The “Magic Trick” Behind the Collapse
During the last crypto bull run, DATs became a popular indirect route for investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin through equity markets. Firms issued shares that traded at steep premiums to their underlying Bitcoin value, often two to seven times higher.
10x Research likened the phenomenon to a “financial magic trick” that transferred wealth from retail shareholders to company treasuries. “Shareholders lost billions while executives accumulated real BTC,” the report said.
Metaplanet’s case highlights the dynamic vividly. At its peak, the company’s $8 billion market capitalisation was backed by just $1 billion in Bitcoin. Following the correction, Metaplanet now holds roughly $3.3 billion in Bitcoin against a $3.1 billion market cap, a far more sustainable ratio.
MicroStrategy, led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, faced a similar fate. The company’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy initially boosted its stock to record highs before its NAV premium evaporated, leading to a sharp pullback.
Retail Investors Burned, But Market Reset Opens Doors
As NAV premiums collapsed, retail investors who bought during the hype cycle were left deep underwater. Many are now exiting the market, unable or unwilling to add to their positions.
“With NAVs now having fully round-tripped, retail investors have lost billions and many likely lack the conviction to keep adding to their positions,” 10x Research observed.
Yet, the report frames this as a natural cleansing of the market. The disappearance of inflated valuations has created a rare entry point for sophisticated investors. Bitcoin treasury stocks now trade at or below NAV, offering near-pure Bitcoin exposure with potential upside from future trading profits or capital efficiency strategies.
This NAV normalisation, analysts argue, is resetting the playing field and paving the way for a new generation of disciplined Bitcoin asset managers, those capable of delivering sustainable performance without relying on speculative premiums.
Emergence of a New Class of Bitcoin Asset Managers
10x Research believes that the current shakeout will separate marketing-driven companies from true operators. Firms that survive this phase will be battle-tested, well-capitalised, and equipped to generate consistent returns through active management and strategic Bitcoin allocation.
“The DATs that adapt now will define the next bull market,” the researchers said. “Bitcoin itself will continue to evolve, and Digital Asset Treasury firms with strong capital bases and trading-savvy management teams may still generate meaningful alpha.”
The rise of this new asset management class could also make Bitcoin exposure more sophisticated, shifting it from speculative retail-driven models to institutional-grade investment frameworks.
Market Reaction: Metaplanet and Strategy Stocks Slide
Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, the short-term market picture remains grim. MicroStrategy’s stock (MSTR) gained 2% on Friday, closing at $289.87, but it has tumbled nearly 39% from its all-time high of $473.83 recorded in November 2024.
Metaplanet (MTPLF) performed even worse, dropping 6.5% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to 402 yen ($2.67). The stock has collapsed 79% from its mid-June peak of 1,895 yen ($12.58).
These declines underscore the volatility that continues to define Bitcoin treasury equities. However, as 10x Research points out, the dust settling after the collapse could mark the beginning of a more sustainable and professionally managed era in Bitcoin capital markets.
The collapse of NAV premiums across Bitcoin treasury firms has wiped out billions in retail wealth but simultaneously opened the door for disciplined investors and seasoned asset managers. The speculative excesses of the past cycle have given way to a more rational, value-driven landscape, one that could ultimately strengthen Bitcoin’s position as a financial asset class.
