Bitcoin’s much-anticipated “Uptober” failed to live up to expectations, closing the month nearly 4% lower despite macroeconomic tailwinds. After briefly rallying mid-month, BTC/USD slipped back toward the $110,000 mark, as investors digested a string of exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and a cautious macro tone from the US Federal Reserve.
According to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin’s price action remained range-bound through the final week of October. The downturn followed persistent sell pressure across US exchanges, a trend that has shadowed the cryptocurrency throughout the month. On-chain data suggested that these moves were driven largely by institutional players trimming exposure via Bitcoin ETFs.
Institutional Outflows Signal Weak Demand
Analytics firm Glassnode reported that ETF outflows underscore a resurgence in selling activity from traditional finance (TradFi) investors, reflecting weaker institutional appetite for Bitcoin at current levels. Data from Farside Investors, a UK-based investment group, revealed that ETF redemptions totalled $191 million on Friday, following an even larger $488 million withdrawal on Thursday.
This marks one of the most pronounced two-day outflow stretches since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched earlier in the year. The move appears particularly striking given the supportive macro backdrop: the US Federal Reserve’s long-expected interest rate cut.
However, optimism was short-lived. “The Fed delivered the expected rate cut, but the hawkish tone for December has cooled optimism,” Glassnode noted, adding that the initial BTC rally quickly faded as traders reverted to a defensive stance, a sentiment mirrored across Bitcoin’s options market, where volatility pricing has surged.
Traders Warn of “Time-Based Capitulation”
Market sentiment among traders has turned notably cautious. Crypto investor Ted Pillows described the current setup as a “time-based capitulation,” where the market slowly bleeds lower as participants lose patience rather than reacting to a sharp price shock.
“BTC time-based capitulation is happening now. But for this, Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $100,000,” Pillows warned on Friday. “A weekly close below this level will confirm the downtrend.”
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades echoed this view, suggesting that Bitcoin’s next major move hinges on a clear break from its current consolidation zone. “A decisive shift can only come once BTC crosses either the $107,000 support or $116,000 resistance,” he said, pointing to the ongoing price compression as a prelude to heightened volatility.
Bollinger Bands Flash Volatility Warning
One of the market’s most widely followed technical indicators is also hinting at turbulence ahead. The Bollinger Bands, a volatility-based measure developed by John Bollinger, have been tightening around Bitcoin’s price action, often a precursor to large directional moves.
Bollinger himself recently commented that it’s “time to pay attention” as volatility compresses across Bitcoin and major altcoins. Historically, such narrowing phases have preceded explosive moves in either direction, amplifying both opportunity and risk for traders.
With Bitcoin’s October candle closing down 3.7%, its worst monthly performance since 2018, analysts warn that volatility is now inevitable. Whether it manifests as a renewed push above $116,000 or a deeper test of $100,000 remains uncertain, but few doubt that November could define Bitcoin’s next macro trend.
Bitcoin’s retreat below $110,000 caps a turbulent October marked by institutional outflows, muted demand, and looming volatility. As Bollinger Bands tighten and traders eye key price thresholds, the market appears poised for a decisive breakout. For now, the world’s largest cryptocurrency stands at a critical juncture, balancing between a $100K consolidation and the next major rally or capitulation phase.
