Bitcoin’s price remains stuck around $68,952, trading within a narrowing range as the US Presidential Election on November 5 looms closer. The cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain momentum above $69,000 throughout October, with each breakout attempt resulting in a pullback to a rising support zone between $64,000 and $67,000.
Tight Race Keeps Bitcoin Flat
The uncertainty surrounding the presidential race, particularly between pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump and incumbent Kamala Harris, is contributing to Bitcoin’s stagnation. Recent polling indicates a neck-and-neck competition, with Harris leading marginally at 50% to Trump’s 49%, according to CBS News/YouGov. Conversely, betting data from Polymarket suggests Trump has a stronger chance of winning, with a 66.5% likelihood compared to Harris’s 33.5%.
Traders are hesitant to make significant moves until the election results offer clearer insight into potential regulatory changes affecting digital assets. A pro-crypto administration could lead to favourable regulations, while a more cautious stance might introduce stricter oversight.
Diverging Market Sentiment
The current market dynamics reflect conflicting sentiments among US retail investors and institutional players. On October 25, the Coinbase Premium Index—a measure of Bitcoin’s price difference on Coinbase compared to global exchanges—reached a yearly low of -0.20, indicating increased selling pressure from retail investors. In contrast, Bitcoin Spot ETFs saw a significant inflow of $402 million, demonstrating institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
Bull Flag Pattern Signals Potential Surge
Despite the price stagnation, Bitcoin is testing the upper trendline of a bull flag pattern after breaking above it on October 15. However, the lack of sustained momentum and moderate trading volume during breakout attempts suggest that traders are waiting for a clear signal before committing to large positions.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits around 60, indicating a moderately bullish phase. If Bitcoin confirms a breakout, projections based on the bull flag pattern suggest a price target of approximately $101,608, marking a potential surge towards $100,000 if momentum builds.
