Bitcoin (BTC) hovered below $95,000 on 11 January after a day marked by significant price swings and a “bearish overreaction” to US employment data.
Markets React to US Jobs Data
Data from TradingView highlighted volatility as Bitcoin initially dipped to $92,000 before rebounding sharply with a $2,000 hourly gain. The subsequent consolidation left BTC trading in a familiar short-term range.
The downturn in risk assets followed stronger-than-expected US employment figures, which reduced the likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both closed 10 January with losses of approximately 1.5%.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, described the market reaction as a “bearish overreaction” to the positive jobs report. Writing on X (formerly Twitter), he noted, “Markets freaking out on a very bullish employment reading… strong jobs numbers like today actually mean the bull run can likely go a lot longer than thought.”
Edwards also highlighted parallels with the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, citing a surge in the intraday put-call ratio that mirrored the volatility of that period.
Speculation on Fed Policy and Market Recovery
Despite immediate market jitters, some analysts suggested that a sustained recovery may be on the horizon. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed a slight increase in bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its late-January meeting, rising to 6.4% from 2.7% the previous day.
Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe offered a cautiously optimistic outlook, stating, “Unemployment was more positive than expected. However, the treasury markets and yields seem to be at a tipping point… Very likely we’ll see an upwards trending market starting in the next 10-15 days for Bitcoin and altcoins.”
Bitcoin’s Critical Support Levels Under Scrutiny
Amid the turmoil, Bitcoin’s ability to hold key support levels has become a focal point for analysts. Popular X account Bitcoindata21 emphasised the importance of avoiding a deeper drop, warning, “If Bitcoin goes to 88k, and takes crypto markets lower 5-10%, then I would want to see a sharp recovery before the week closes.”
A chart shared by the account pointed to Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) on weekly timeframes, showing it hovering near trend channel support.
Echoes of Past Corrections
The current correction is the second major pullback for Bitcoin since its all-time high of $108,000 in mid-December. Observers remain divided on whether BTC’s resilience will prevent a more protracted downtrend.
As markets await further clarity from the Federal Reserve, the next few days could be pivotal for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market. Whether BTC can stage a sharp recovery or succumb to further declines remains uncertain, but optimism lingers among some traders and analysts.
