Bitcoin’s meteoric rise could face a significant challenge this year as key on-chain metrics suggest a potential end to the current bull market. Analysts are flagging cautionary signs as Bitcoin’s (BTC) price hovers near $105,738, with some indicators nearing sell-off territory.
On-Chain Data Hints at Distribution Phase
According to new research from CryptoQuant, the Index of Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) has entered the “distribution region” for the first time in eight months. This marks a crucial stage in the Bitcoin price cycle, often preceding a market correction.
Gaah, a CryptoQuant contributor, highlighted in a market update that the IBCI’s position indicates Bitcoin “may be approaching a possible cycle top.” However, Gaah noted there is no definitive confirmation yet, as the IBCI has not reached the 100% level historically associated with market tops.
The IBCI aggregates seven widely-used on-chain indicators, including the Puell Multiple, Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). These tools collectively assess Bitcoin’s price trajectory, signalling when a macro top or bottom may be imminent.
Room for Growth Before Correction?
While some parts of the IBCI are nearing warning levels, not all indicators are flashing red. For instance, the Puell Multiple—a measure of daily BTC issuance against its annual moving average—remains well below the danger zone, typically marked by levels of 6 or higher.
CryptoQuant also pointed out that a brief entry into the macro top risk zone earlier in 2024 did not result in a prolonged downtrend. This suggests the current market could still see further growth before a definitive correction sets in.
Price Targets and Historical Parallels
Despite concerns, Bitcoin remains on track for ambitious price targets. Predictions for 2025 see BTC reaching $150,000 or more, though some experts caution against overconfidence.
Network economist Timothy Peterson has drawn parallels between the current bull run and the 2015–2017 cycle, noting a 90% correlation over the past 250 days. He predicts Bitcoin could hit $137,000 before retreating below the six-figure mark for a local bottom.

Earlier this month, Peterson projected a staggering $1.5 million valuation per Bitcoin by 2035. However, short-term trends suggest a potential dip to $90,000 before further gains.
Uncertainty Clouds Bitcoin’s Path
While Bitcoin’s price action has delivered optimism for bulls, the IBCI’s current trajectory raises the spectre of a market correction. Historically, when the index hits 100%, the market has shifted into a bear phase. Yet with some indicators still falling short of critical levels, Bitcoin’s rally may not be over just yet.
As investors weigh sky-high price targets against on-chain warnings, the coming months could prove pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin continues its ascent or begins its next multi-year downtrend.