XRP has staged a recovery in recent days, buoyed by aggressive whale accumulation. However, despite the injection of over $630 million from large holders, profit-taking among retail and mid-sized investors continues to weigh on the rally. While a crucial bearish pattern has been broken, XRP’s path to sustained upside still faces hurdles.

Whales Step In to Drive Market Support

Over the past month, XRP endured a rocky ride, falling by more than 12.5% in four weeks. Yet, on a three-month horizon, the token remains up around 26%, demonstrating resilience. The latest momentum shift has largely been driven by whales large holders with deep liquidity, who returned to the market in force.

On 3 September, when XRP traded slightly above $2.85, two major whale cohorts began adding significantly to their positions. On-chain data shows that wallets holding at least 1 billion XRP, as well as those holding between 10 million and 100 million, both increased their balances.

Specifically, the largest group boosted its holdings from 23.86 billion to 23.93 billion XRP, while the second added from 7.61 billion to 7.76 billion XRP. At prevailing market prices, these purchases amount to an eye-catching $630 million in additional exposure.

This surge in demand was instrumental in pushing XRP above the $2.85 barrier, a level that had previously capped upward movement. Simply put, whales acted as a force of gravity in reverse, pulling the price higher by absorbing available supply at those resistance levels.

Retail Profit-Taking Caps Momentum

However, while whales added to their positions, many smaller investors opted to cash out. Profit-taking has been a significant factor preventing XRP from breaking out with stronger momentum.

Two indicators highlight this selling pressure:

• Percent Supply in Profit: On 1 September, 85.6% of all XRP holders were in profit. By 7 September, that figure climbed to 93.4%. With such a large majority sitting on gains, many chose to sell and lock in profits, creating selling pressure against whale accumulation.

• HODL Waves: Analysing HODL waves, which group coins based on holding duration, reveals further evidence of selling. Coins held for between three and six months fell from 9.05% of supply to 6.12%, while one-week to one-month holders dropped sharply from 7.68% to 2.61%. This shows that both short and mid-term investors sold into the recent bounce, dampening the bullish effect of whale purchases.

The net result is a tug of war between large holders propping up prices and smaller investors taking money off the table. For now, this dynamic has slowed XRP’s ascent.

Key Technical Levels and Pattern Breakout

Despite profit-taking, the technical picture for XRP has improved. Currently trading at $2.88, the token is holding firmly above the $2.85 support level.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $2.94 and $3.10, with a more significant breakout level at $3.35. Should XRP move decisively above this threshold, market structure would flip to fully bullish, opening the door to further upside momentum.

Importantly, XRP has also escaped a bearish chart formation. For weeks, the cryptocurrency was trapped in a descending triangle, a pattern that typically signals a breakdown when sellers repeatedly test flat support. The risk was that XRP would lose the $2.69 level, triggering further losses. Instead, the market broke upward, invalidating the bearish setup and removing immediate downside risk.

As long as XRP continues to hold above $2.85 and, crucially, $2.69, the broader three-month uptrend remains intact. This gives bulls room to manoeuvre, provided whale support continues.

Risks That Could Undermine the Rally

Although whales have stepped up as a stabilising force, one risk remains, what happens if their buying slows? Should profit-taking persist or intensify, XRP could struggle to maintain its footing.

The $2.69 level now serves as the critical line in the sand. A clean drop below this support would undo recent bullish progress and potentially trigger renewed downside.

Equally, with more than 90% of holders currently in profit, the temptation to sell is unlikely to disappear quickly. This raises the possibility that smaller investors may continue to take gains at each price rise, limiting upward momentum even if whales keep accumulating.

For sustained upside, the market needs either a pause in profit-taking or a fresh influx of demand beyond existing whale support. Without that, XRP could remain range-bound, fluctuating between $2.69 and $3.10.

Bulls Hold the Edge, But Not Yet Clear

Overall, XRP’s outlook has improved in recent days. Whale accumulation worth $630 million has given the market renewed strength and helped break out of a bearish triangle. Support at $2.85 and $2.69 remains intact, while higher resistance levels beckon.

Yet, profit-taking behaviour among retail and mid-term holders means the rally has not accelerated as aggressively as whale purchases might suggest. The market is effectively in a balancing act: whales are lifting prices, while smaller sellers are holding them back.

If whales maintain their buying and profit-taking slows, XRP could soon clear $3.10 and aim for a bullish breakout above $3.35. But if the balance tips the other way, the $2.69 support could once again be tested.