As optimism surrounding the potential approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) reaches fever pitch, analysts are forecasting a dramatic surge in XRP price, followed by an equally dramatic collapse. Market data, corporate adoption, and technical indicators all seem to point towards a bullish 2025 for the altcoin. However, history and technical patterns warn that this run could end in a sharp correction, wiping out most of the gains.

XRP Recovers, ETF Optimism Fuels Rally

XRP recently rebounded from a local low of $2.06 to hover around $2.26, gaining 9.7% in just days. This move comes amid renewed speculation about a spot XRP ETF approval in 2025. According to data from Polymarket, odds of approval have soared to 98%, a massive jump from 68% in April.

This optimism is driven by several major developments:

• Multiple spot XRP ETF applications have been submitted by institutional giants like Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares.
• The CME Group launched XRP futures ETFs on May 19, which recorded a trading volume of $19 million on the first day.
• Corporate interest has surged, with three firms announcing combined XRP treasury allocations exceeding $471 million. Notably, Webus International filed with the SEC to create a $300 million XRP reserve.

These factors, alongside the SEC’s dropped lawsuit against Ripple in March, have significantly improved XRP’s legal standing and market sentiment.

Analysts Forecast XRP Price Target Above $25

With the ETF narrative gaining strength, analysts are forecasting a bullish 2025 for XRP. Egrag Crypto, a well-known market analyst, predicts that XRP is poised to hit double digits, with a target range of $20 to $27. His analysis, dubbed “The Guardian Arch,” is based on a combination of moving average indicators and chart patterns.

According to Egrag:

• XRP is forming a monthly bull flag, a classic continuation pattern.
• The 21-week EMA and 33-week SMA positioning point to a major turning point.
• A rally to $20–$27 is likely, but a severe retracement is also expected.

Egrag warns that after reaching its top, XRP could retrace as much as 86%, potentially crashing down to around $3.00, mimicking the post-2021 bear market.

Echoes of 2017: A “Biblical” Rally Followed by Collapse?

Fellow analyst Jaydee_757 draws comparisons between the current setup and the 2017 XRP bull cycle. Back then, a hidden bullish divergence in the weekly timeframe preceded a meteoric 20x rally, pushing XRP from $0.0055 to over $3.40.

Jaydee believes a similar divergence is playing out now, suggesting:

• A possible 1,000% rally from current levels.
• XRP hitting $25 or beyond if historical patterns repeat.
• A steep crash of 90% post-peak, mirroring the previous cycle.

He described the potential move as “Biblical,” but cautioned investors about the historical crash that may follow.

Institutional Interest and Corporate Adoption

The surge in institutional interest is a strong signal of XRP’s growing credibility in the crypto space. The launch of XRP futures ETFs on the CME has alleviated SEC concerns about the existence of a regulated derivatives market. This has strengthened the case for approving a spot XRP ETF.

Moreover, Webus International’s $300 million XRP strategic reserve demonstrates how corporations are beginning to treat XRP as a long-term asset. Combined with other treasury investments, this adds significant demand pressure, a key factor that could propel prices upward.

Final Thoughts: Boom Before the Bust?

XRP’s current price action and market setup suggest a powerful rally may be on the horizon. Analysts widely agree that ETF approval could act as the catalyst for a move into the $20–$27 range, especially if major asset managers like BlackRock enter the arena.

However, investors should be cautious. Both historical precedent and technical indicators hint at a significant post-rally correction, potentially as steep as 90%. The message is clear: while XRP may shine brightly in the short term, the aftermath could be brutal for those unprepared.