Bitcoin has shown renewed signs of life, climbing 2.5% over the past 24 hours to trade near $115,700. Despite this move, the flagship cryptocurrency continues to lag behind Ethereum and other altcoins that have already surged to fresh highs. Currently around 7% below its peak, Bitcoin faces a critical inflection point.

Several key on-chain and technical indicators suggest that the setup for a breakout is forming, closely resembling conditions seen earlier this month when BTC staged a swift rally. Traders and analysts are now closely monitoring whale behaviour and accumulation patterns among holders to assess whether the momentum is strong enough to carry Bitcoin towards uncharted territory.

Whale Selling Pressure Begins to Ease

One of the biggest drags on Bitcoin’s performance in recent weeks has been consistent whale selling. As large holders rotated capital into other assets, retail investors were left to shoulder the buying pressure, limiting Bitcoin’s upside momentum.

However, data now suggests this selling pressure is beginning to subside. The Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the proportion of the top 10 inflows relative to all inflows into exchanges, has dropped from 0.54 on 19 August to 0.43 by 22 August, marking its lowest level in nearly two weeks.

A similar move was recorded on 10 August, when the ratio fell to 0.42. That dip preceded a sharp rally in BTC from $119,305 to $124,000, representing a 3.9% gain. If this pattern repeats, the latest decline in whale inflows could act as the trigger for another breakout attempt.

HODL Waves Show Strong Accumulation

While whale activity provides the short-term spark, longer-term trends also point towards strength. The HODL Waves metric, which tracks BTC supply across age bands, shows clear evidence of accumulation during recent market volatility.

Over the past month:

• Wallets holding BTC for 1–2 years increased from 10.31% to 10.57%
• 3–6 month wallets climbed from 6.40% to 7.19%
• 1–3 month wallets surged from 6.99% to 8.93%

This steady rise across multiple cohorts indicates that both mid-term and long-term investors are adding to their positions, signalling conviction that BTC remains on course for further upside. When paired with declining whale inflows, the market appears structurally primed for a bullish breakout.

Key Technical Levels Define the Breakout Path

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is consolidating just above strong support at $115,400. The immediate resistance zone sits at $117,600, with the next decisive level at $119,700. A clear break above this threshold would act as the breakout trigger, opening the door to a retest of Bitcoin’s all-time high.

Conversely, a slip below $114,100 and especially beneath $111,900, would shift the near-term outlook to bearish, suggesting that momentum may falter before any breakout attempt.

For now, the signals are aligning in favour of the bulls. If the whale ratio’s August pattern repeats, Bitcoin could climb nearly 4% from current levels, pushing it firmly past $119,000 and into breakout territory. From there, the momentum could accelerate quickly, validating the thesis that Bitcoin’s rally has merely been delayed, not denied.

A Rally Waiting to Ignite

Bitcoin remains in a holding pattern, but the combination of weakening whale selling, growing holder conviction, and a supportive technical structure points to an imminent move. Traders will be watching closely as Bitcoin approaches the $119,700 breakout zone. Should it clear that level with strong volume, the market could see a swift push back towards, and potentially beyond, all-time highs.

For now, all eyes are on whale behaviour and whether this renewed setup sparks the long-awaited next leg of the Bitcoin bull run.