Solana’s native token SOL has extended its decline, falling more than 50 percent from its September peak as weakening onchain activity and bearish technical signals raise fears of a deeper correction. The drop comes amid a broader downturn across the altcoin market, with investors increasingly cautious about risk assets.

SOL price down sharply from September highs

SOL has fallen around 52 percent from its high near $255 reached on September 18. By late November, the token was trading close to $128, having lost several long term support levels. This decline followed a wider sell off in the crypto market that also pushed Bitcoin to a seven month low near $80,000.

Market participants are now questioning whether SOL could fall below the psychologically important $100 mark, or even test levels closer to $80 if current trends continue.

Solana TVL drops back to June levels

One of the clearest signs of weakening confidence is the sharp fall in total value locked on the Solana blockchain. Data from DefiLlama shows that Solana TVL has dropped more than 34 percent from its September peak of $13.22 billion to around $8.67 billion, a six month low.

TVL has remained below $10 billion for roughly a month, suggesting that capital has not yet returned to Solana based decentralised finance. The decline has been led by Jito liquid staking, which has seen its locked value fall by more than 50 percent since mid September. Other major protocols have also recorded steep drops, with Jupiter DEX down about 30 percent while Raydium and Sanctum have each fallen by roughly 46 percent.

Onchain activity shows weakening demand

Beyond TVL, other network metrics also point to reduced usage of the Solana blockchain. Over the past week, Solana’s chain fees totalled about $3.43 million. This figure represents an 11 percent decline compared with the previous week plus a 23 percent fall from last month.

At the same time, the number of active addresses on Solana’s base layer fell by nearly 8 percent over seven days, while transaction counts declined by more than 6 percent. Lower fees, fewer active users plus reduced transaction volumes together suggest cooling demand for block space, which typically translates into weaker demand for SOL itself.

Memecoin activity collapses on Solana

The slowdown in Solana usage has been especially visible in the memecoin sector, which had previously driven significant network activity. Prices of most Solana based memecoins have fallen by double digits on both weekly plus monthly time frames, with many tokens down between 10 percent and 25 percent from recent highs.

This price weakness has been accompanied by a dramatic collapse in decentralised exchange volume linked to memecoins. According to Blockworks Research, weekly memecoin trading volume on Solana has dropped by about 95 percent to roughly $2.7 billion, down from a peak of $56 billion recorded in January. The sharp decline highlights fading speculative interest, reducing one of the key demand drivers for the Solana ecosystem.

Bearish chart pattern points to further downside

Technical analysis adds to the cautious outlook. TradingView data shows SOL trading below a bear pennant pattern, which is typically viewed as a continuation signal after a sharp decline. The recent break below the pennant support near $135 suggests that sellers remain in control.

The measured target of this pattern sits near $86, implying a potential drop of more than 30 percent from current levels. Some traders believe SOL could trade between $90 plus $100 in the near term. Before reaching those levels, the 200 week exponential moving average around $118 could offer temporary support, where buyers may attempt to defend the price.

If SOL fails to hold that area, analysts warn that a move toward the mid $90s or lower would become increasingly likely.