European regulators are tightening the screws on crypto based prediction markets, with Polymarket facing new access restrictions in Hungary and Portugal. The latest actions underline a broader regulatory dilemma across Europe over whether platforms like Polymarket should be treated as financial markets or as unlicensed gambling operations.
Hungary Blocks Access Over Gambling Concerns
Hungary has become the latest country to formally restrict Polymarket. The country’s regulator, Szabályozott Tevékenységek Felügyeleti Hatósága, has temporarily blocked access to the platform’s main domain and related subdomains. In an official notice released on Friday, the authority said the move was taken due to the forbidden organization of gambling activities under Hungarian law.
Users attempting to access Polymarket from Hungarian IP addresses are now greeted with a warning message issued by the regulator. The authority said the block will remain in place until its review of the platform’s activities is completed, leaving open the possibility of a longer term ban.
The Hungarian decision adds to a growing list of European jurisdictions that view Polymarket as operating outside the bounds of local gambling regulations.
Portugal Orders Wind Down of Operations
In Portugal, the Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service, known as SRIJ, has also ordered Polymarket to wind down its activities. According to local media outlet Rádio Renascença, the platform was still accessible to users earlier this week, suggesting that enforcement measures are still being rolled out.
Portuguese regulators reportedly concluded that Polymarket is operating illegally because it does not hold the required national license. Political betting is also banned nationwide in Portugal, making the platform’s election related contracts a direct violation of local law.
The regulator’s concerns were heightened by reports that around 4 million euros in wagers were placed on Portuguese presidential races in the hours leading up to the announcement of election results. This raised fears about possible insider trading or misuse of privileged information, a sensitive issue in a tightly regulated political environment.
A Wave of Bans Across Europe and Beyond
Hungary and Portugal are not isolated cases. Over the past year, Polymarket has been restricted or blocked in a growing number of countries, largely over gambling related concerns.
Ukraine blocked the platform earlier this month, classifying its activities as unlicensed gambling under national law. France’s National Gaming Authority announced plans in November 2024 to block Polymarket for failing to comply with French gambling regulations. Switzerland followed shortly after, with the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority ordering access restrictions on similar grounds.
Poland added Polymarket to its registry of prohibited gambling websites on Jan. 8, 2025. Singapore blocked access days later as part of a wider crackdown on unlicensed online platforms. Belgium’s gambling regulator took comparable action on Jan. 30, 2025, citing violations of national gambling legislation.
According to Polymarket’s own website, the platform is already geoblocked in 33 countries, a figure that continues to rise as regulators sharpen their focus on prediction markets.
Finance or Gambling, a Regulatory Gray Area
At the heart of the dispute is how prediction markets should be classified. Polymarket allows users to trade contracts tied to real world outcomes, such as elections or geopolitical events. Prices are determined by market participants rather than by a traditional bookmaker.
Supporters argue that this structure makes prediction markets closer to financial instruments than to gambling. They claim such platforms provide valuable signals about public expectations and future outcomes. Regulators across Europe have largely rejected this view, instead treating these contracts as bets that fall under existing gambling laws.
The lack of a unified European framework has led to a patchwork of national responses, leaving platforms like Polymarket navigating inconsistent rules across borders.
Insider Trading Allegations Add Pressure
Regulatory scrutiny has intensified following a controversial incident earlier this year that raised insider trading concerns. On Jan. 3, a Polymarket account placed a large bet predicting that Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office. Just hours later, US forces captured him in a military operation.
The trade reportedly earned the user around $400,000, prompting questions about whether the bettor had access to non public information. The incident has fueled calls for stricter oversight of political prediction markets, particularly when national security or foreign policy is involved.
In the United States, lawmakers have since proposed legislation aimed at limiting or banning political prediction market trading by government officials, adding another layer of pressure on the sector.
Trading Volumes Continue to Surge
Despite mounting regulatory action, interest in prediction markets shows little sign of slowing. On Jan. 12, total prediction market trading volume reached a record $701.7 million. Polymarket rival Kalshi accounted for roughly two thirds of that figure, highlighting strong demand even as restrictions expand.
Polymarket has not publicly commented on the latest actions by Hungarian and Portuguese regulators. For now, the platform faces an uncertain future in Europe, caught between growing user interest and increasingly firm regulatory opposition.
