Hamster Kombat (HMSTR), once hailed as a rising star among Telegram’s viral tap-to-earn tokens, has hit a devastating low. After weeks of selling pressure and fading interest, the HMSTR price has tumbled by 65% year-to-date (YTD), reaching a new all-time low of $0.0010. Just in the past 24 hours, the token has crashed over 26%, leaving traders and investors wondering if there’s any way out of this nosedive.
Whales Are Jumping Ship
Using data from IntoTheBlock, we can see that the “Large Holders Netflow” which tracks wallets holding 1% or more of the supply has crashed by 90% over the past week. On June 10, these wallets saw inflows of 251.99 million HMSTR. Today, that number has dropped dramatically, signaling massive selling activity.
This kind of behaviour from whales is often a strong bearish signal. When large holders dump their tokens, it floods the market and drives prices down further. If this trend continues, it could prevent HMSTR from making any meaningful short-term recovery.
Hype Fizzles, Supply Overwhelms Demand
Hamster Kombat gained early traction from its association with Telegram and its play-to-earn nature. However, the initial hype is quickly wearing off. As the novelty fades, so does the demand and that’s a big problem for a token with such a huge supply.
Currently, 64 billion HMSTR tokens are already in circulation out of a maximum supply of 100 billion. That means over 60% of the total supply is already in the market and there’s still 36 billion more that could be unlocked.
In such cases, if demand doesn’t match up with the circulating volume, the price tends to drop further. And right now, there’s very little buying interest to absorb all the selling pressure, especially with whales exiting the scene.
Funding Rates Reveal Bearish Sentiment
Another key indicator of HMSTR’s current trouble is its funding rate, which reflects the balance between long and short positions in futures markets.
In healthy markets, positive funding rates show that buyers are dominant. But for HMSTR, the funding rate has turned deeply negative. This means short sellers, those betting against the token are now being rewarded.
This clearly signals that bears are in control, and they’re profiting from the falling price. As long as this dynamic continues, there’s little incentive for buyers to jump back in.
Technical Analysis: No Signs of Reversal Yet
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has shown a bearish crossover, confirming downward momentum. At the same time, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) paints a grim picture:
- The +DMI, which signals bullish strength, has dropped to just 5.41, an extremely weak reading.
- The –DMI, representing selling strength, has surged to 45.85 showing that sellers are fully in charge.
Unless we see a reversal in these indicators, especially a MACD bullish flip and a reduction in –DMI, HMSTR is likely to remain under pressure. If the current price of $0.0010 breaks down further, another leg lower could follow.
However, if some buying momentum returns, there’s a chance for a short-term bounce to $0.0023, though that still represents a far cry from its earlier highs.
Is There Any Hope for HMSTR?
At this stage, Hamster Kombat is facing strong headwinds on all fronts, from whale dumping and a collapsing community, to weak technicals and fading hype. Unless there’s a sudden shift in investor sentiment or a major update from the project team, HMSTR is likely to remain in the red for the foreseeable future.
While a short-term recovery isn’t entirely off the table, any bullish move will require serious accumulation and renewed interest. For now, investors should stay cautious and watch key indicators closely, especially whale activity and funding rates, before making any bold moves.
