Bitcoin has been under pressure this week as macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions weigh on investor sentiment. The crypto fear and greed index has slipped to the fear zone at 35, reflecting cautious market behavior.
The key concerns include the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, with new tariffs imposed on Chinese goods worth over $450 billion. While Canada and Mexico have seen temporary relief, the possibility of renewed tariffs next month adds to market uncertainty.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s recent stagnation is linked to a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged in its latest meeting, signaling only two rate cuts in 2025. Historically, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies perform better when the Fed adopts a more dovish stance.
Declining ETF Inflows and Weak Futures Interest
Institutional demand for Bitcoin has also softened in recent weeks. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have declined to around $57 billion, down from the 2025 high of $68 billion. Meanwhile, CoinGlass data suggests weak futures open interest, indicating that traders are hesitant to take large positions in the current market climate.
Major firms like Strategy have also paused their Bitcoin purchases, reflecting a cautious approach amid broader economic uncertainty.
Rare Technical Patterns Signal Long-Term Upside
Despite the short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has formed two rare technical patterns that historically signal substantial upside.
Cup and Handle Pattern Points to $123K
Bitcoin has completed a cup and handle (C&H) pattern that formed between November 2021 and November 2024. This bullish formation consists of a rounded bottom (the “cup”) followed by a period of consolidation (the “handle”).
Traders measure the depth of the cup to estimate the breakout target. With an 80% depth, Bitcoin’s price projection from this pattern suggests a move toward $123,000.
Bullish Flag Breakout Targets $166K
Another promising pattern on the weekly chart is a bullish flag, which consists of a steep price surge (flagpole) followed by a consolidation phase (flag). The flagpole for Bitcoin is approximately 55%, and applying this measure from the upper resistance level signals a long-term breakout target of $166,000.
How Soon Could Bitcoin Reach $166K?
While these patterns are promising, they operate on a long-term timeframe. The C&H formation took three years to develop, suggesting that Bitcoin’s journey to $166K may take time.
For now, macroeconomic trends, institutional inflows, and Federal Reserve policies will dictate Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. However, as historical patterns suggest, BTC could be gearing up for a substantial rally in the coming years.
