Bitcoin remained pinned near $91,000 over the weekend even as global markets reacted positively to rising expectations of a United States interest rate cut. While stocks and gold rallied, weak ETF inflows and cautious derivatives trading prevented Bitcoin from reclaiming the $93,000 level.
ETF Inflows Stall While Derivatives Stay Defensive
Despite softer macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin continues to face resistance due to lacklustre institutional demand. Net inflows into United States spot Bitcoin ETFs reached only $70 million in the week ending 28 November. None of the major companies that hold Bitcoin as a treasury reserve added to their positions during the past two weeks, according to CoinGlass.
SpaceX added to market uncertainty when 1,163 BTC moved to two new addresses on Thursday. The shift prompted speculation about a possible sale, although the company has issued no clarification on whether it changed custodians.
Caution also persisted across derivatives markets. Monthly futures traded at a 4 per cent premium relative to spot, a level that usually falls short of the 5 to 10 per cent range seen in neutral conditions. The restrained appetite for leveraged long positions reflects lingering concerns after Bitcoin’s 18 per cent pullback over the past month.
Options data reinforced this cautious stance. Demand for put options exceeded call volume on Thursday and Friday. A neutral market tends to show a put-to-call ratio of 1.3 times or lower. Recent activity has stayed well above that threshold, although conditions have eased from the extreme 5 times imbalance seen on 21 November.
Rate-Cut Bets Surge After Weak Labour Indicators
Bond futures tracked by CME Group show that traders now assign an 87 per cent probability to a rate cut at the 10 December Federal Reserve meeting, up from 71 per cent one week earlier. Expectations grew after fresh signs of weakness in the United States job market. Continuing claims reached 1.96 million in the week ending 15 November, the highest level in many months.
Lower interest rates typically support risk assets due to improved liquidity conditions. However, Bitcoin has not yet reacted with the same momentum seen in equities and precious metals. The S&P 500 is now only one per cent away from its all-time high. Gold rose 3.8 per cent during the week and silver reached an all-time high.
Tech Sector Stability Helps Improve Sentiment
The technology sector eased broader market concerns after Google’s custom TPU chip enabled the Gemini model to outperform benchmarks in coding, mathematics, science and multimodal reasoning. The TPU architecture uses less energy compared to GPU-based processing. Alphabet gained 6.8 per cent on the week and helped reduce anxiety about Nvidia’s growth trajectory.
The stabilisation of the artificial intelligence sector supported overall risk appetite. Traders expect that any forthcoming interest rate cut will benefit growth stocks, although Bitcoin’s correlation with tech equities continues to decline. This divergence suggests that crypto market sentiment is increasingly driven by sector-specific factors rather than macro trends.
Political Signals Add Support for Scarce Assets
During the United States holiday period, President Donald Trump reiterated a plan to introduce substantial income-tax reductions funded through import tariff revenue. The prospect of persistent government debt expansion boosted demand for scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
Although precious metals responded strongly, Bitcoin’s reaction was muted due to the ongoing caution among derivatives traders and subdued institutional flows. Analysts note that a decisive break above $93,000 will likely require a clear improvement in ETF demand and a shift away from downside hedging.
Can Bitcoin Break Through $91,000?
Bitcoin’s path towards the long-discussed $100,000 mark appears increasingly dependent on internal crypto market dynamics rather than broad macro trends. For now, traders are focused on one crucial threshold. The longer Bitcoin holds above $90,000, the more confidence builds among bullish investors.
A return of robust ETF inflows, a more balanced put-to-call options market and expectations of liquidity injections from the central bank could offer the conditions required for a breakout. Until these factors align, Bitcoin is likely to trade within a narrow range, with $91,000 acting as the key battleground for momentum.
