The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March, far exceeding expectations of 135,000, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While this signals economic strength, markets remain rattled by Trump’s new tariffs and China’s retaliation, causing sharp sell-offs in stocks. Amidst this turbulence, Bitcoin has shown early signs of resilience, raising speculation about its role as a safe-haven asset.
Markets Tumble as Job Growth Surges
The March jobs report delivered a significant upside surprise, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Despite strong job creation, markets remain unsettled following Trump’s tariff announcements, which triggered a 6% drop in the Nasdaq and a nearly 5% fall in the S&P 500 on Thursday.
Before the jobs report, futures for both indices pointed to further declines of around 3%, as China responded with retaliatory tariffs. Investors are now anxiously awaiting March inflation data next week, which will shape Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Rate Cuts on the Horizon?
The CME FedWatch Tool indicated that markets had priced in four rate cuts for 2025, potentially bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.25%–3.50%. While the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in May, there is a growing consensus that a cut could come as early as June, with odds now at 60%.
Lower interest rates typically boost risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, recent volatility in traditional markets has kept crypto investors cautious.
Bitcoin’s Emerging Safe-Haven Appeal?
While Bitcoin has largely followed the Nasdaq’s movements in recent weeks, a potential decoupling may be underway. On Thursday, Bitcoin held firm around $80,000, even as the Nasdaq plunged throughout the day. Following the jobs report, BTC remained relatively stable near $82,600, suggesting that some investors are turning to crypto amid market uncertainty.
Gold, a traditional safe-haven, remains near its record high of $3,200 per ounce, while U.S. Treasury bonds have also seen strong demand, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.89%. If Bitcoin continues to hold up during stock market turmoil, it could solidify its position as a digital safe-haven asset.
What’s Next for Bitcoin and Markets?
With inflation data due next week, all eyes will be on whether core and headline CPI remain around 3%. A lower-than-expected reading could reinforce rate-cut bets, potentially benefiting Bitcoin and risk assets. Conversely, persistent inflation could keep the Fed cautious, prolonging market uncertainty.
For now, Bitcoin’s ability to withstand stock market turbulence is being closely watched. If its resilience continues, the crypto asset could attract more investors seeking stability in volatile times.
