Bitcoin is heading toward the final days of the year trapped in an unusually narrow range, raising concerns that 2025 could close as its first bearish year following a halving event. With BTC hovering around $88,000 and volatility fading, traders and analysts are closely watching the yearly candle for signals that could challenge long held market theories.

Calm Weekend Trading Masks Market Tension

Bitcoin spent the weekend showing little price movement, an uncommon calm for an asset known for sharp swings. Data from TradingView showed BTC consolidating just below $88,000 after nearly two days of flat trading. This followed a volatile Friday session marked by liquidity grabs tied to a massive $24 billion options expiry, which many traders believe temporarily pinned price action.

The lack of movement has not gone unnoticed. While some participants expected a stronger reaction after the options expiry, others see the quiet market as a pause rather than a reversal. Historically, periods of low volatility have often preceded major price shifts, though timing remains uncertain.

Bullish Divergence Offers Hope for Rebound

Despite the muted price action, technical analysts have found reasons for cautious optimism. A key development is the appearance of a bullish divergence on the three day relative strength index chart. Trader Jelle highlighted that Bitcoin has once again formed this pattern near an important support zone.

According to Jelle, the previous two major local bottoms also coincided with similar three day RSI divergences. He suggested that if history follows a familiar script, Bitcoin could be setting up for a rebound rather than a deeper decline. While technical signals are not guarantees, such patterns often attract short term buyers looking for confirmation of a trend shift.

Seasonal Factors and the $100,000 Narrative

Some traders are leaning on seasonal behavior to justify a more optimistic outlook. Trader BitBull pointed to early January as a period when institutions typically rebalance portfolios, often directing funds toward assets that lagged in the prior year.

He argued that Bitcoin currently fits that profile and could benefit from fresh capital inflows once the calendar turns. If that happens, a breakout above the current downtrend line could follow, opening the door for a move toward the widely discussed $100,000 level. While ambitious, this target continues to shape sentiment across crypto markets, even as near term price action remains subdued.

Low Volatility Seen as Part of a Larger Cycle

Veteran analyst Aksel Kibar offered a broader perspective, suggesting that Bitcoin’s current behavior is not unusual given the strong rally seen earlier in the year. He noted that volatility tends to move in cycles, with periods of explosive price action often followed by consolidation phases.

According to Kibar, Bitcoin is likely waiting for a cleaner chart structure before making its next decisive move. From this view, the present range is less a sign of weakness and more a reset after aggressive gains in the third quarter.

Yearly Candle Puts Four Year Cycle Theory to the Test

As the year draws to a close, attention is shifting from short term charts to the bigger picture. Bitcoin is currently down about 6 percent for the year, putting it on course to print its first red yearly candle in a post halving period. Such an outcome would be unprecedented and could call into question the reliability of the four year cycle model that has guided many long term investors.

Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, emphasized that closing prices matter more than intraday swings. He noted that while price wicks beyond key levels are common, the final yearly close will carry greater significance for market structure and sentiment.

Alan added that a late push toward the yearly open near $93,500 is still possible, even with limited time remaining. A retest of that level before the year ends could shift the candle back into positive territory, preserving historical patterns and easing concerns about a structural change in Bitcoin’s cycle behavior.

Outlook Remains Uncertain as New Year Approaches

Bitcoin enters the final stretch of the year at a crossroads. On one side is the risk of making bearish history with a red post halving year. On the other is the possibility that technical signals, seasonal flows, and renewed institutional interest could spark a recovery early in the new year.

For now, price remains stuck, volatility is compressed, and traders are waiting. Whether Bitcoin closes the year near $88,000 or stages a late rally toward $93,500 may shape narratives well into the months ahead.