As Bitcoin continues to hover near its all-time highs, some experts are sounding the alarm: the current bull market may be nearing its end. While many investors are hopeful for continued growth into 2026, respected crypto analyst Rekt Capital believes the rally could fade out within the next two to three months.
Rekt Capital: Only a Few Months Left in the Rally
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently shared a stark warning in a video update: “We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left.” His prediction is based on how Bitcoin behaved in the previous halving cycle, particularly the one that occurred in 2020.
According to Rekt, if the current market follows a similar path, October 2025 could mark the cycle peak. This would be 550 days after the April 2024 halving, mirroring the timeline of the previous bull market. That gives BTC just two to three more months to push higher before entering a longer period of stagnation or decline.
He added, “Many people are happy to throw away time-tested principles,” referring to the halving cycle, which has historically dictated BTC’s long-term price movements.
Halving Cycle vs. New Narratives
The Bitcoin halving cycle is a well-known event that occurs every four years, reducing the reward for mining new blocks by half. Historically, this event has led to major bull runs, peaking around 12–18 months after the halving.
However, Rekt Capital believes that some investors are abandoning this principle in favour of new narratives, particularly ones tied to macroeconomic indicators like the global M2 money supply (the total amount of money in circulation).
He argues that this shift is emotionally driven: “It’s an emotional thing, and you don’t want emotional things clouding your judgement.”
Meanwhile, analyst Crypto Auris offered a different view. He pointed to the expanding global money supply as a key driver, stating: “As global money supply expands, Bitcoin’s next target sits around ~$170K, following the flow.”
Institutional Interest Changes the Game?
While Rekt urges investors to stick to proven metrics, others believe Bitcoin’s environment is evolving. Major institutions have entered the market in recent years, which was not the case in previous cycles.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, argues that Bitcoin has outgrown the old halving pattern. “Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a halving,” he said.
Standard Chartered has predicted Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by year-end, and wealth firm Bernstein shares the same forecast. Even more optimistic is Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, who believes Bitcoin could soar to $250,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin Near All-Time Highs – What’s Next?
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $109,155, just 2.5% below its all-time high of $111,970, according to CoinMarketCap. The crypto market remains highly volatile, and predictions vary widely based on which metrics analysts prioritise.
For those following the traditional halving model, the clock is ticking. October could mark the top of the market, followed by a potential cooldown. On the other hand, those who believe in a “cycle extension” argue that macroeconomic factors and rising institutional investment could keep the rally going well into 2026.
The Bitcoin market is at a critical point. On one side are traditionalists like Rekt Capital who believe in the historical patterns that have guided Bitcoin for over a decade. On the other are newer voices who argue that changing market dynamics demand fresh perspectives.
For investors, the key may be to balance both viewpoints, recognising the value of time-tested cycles while staying open to the evolving nature of Bitcoin in a rapidly shifting financial world. Whether the peak comes in October or years from now, one thing is certain: volatility is far from over.
