Optimism over renewed trade ties and a possible tax relief package fuels hopes of a major market rally.
Tariff Truce Sparks Optimism in Risk Markets
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are poised for a significant rally following a fresh trade agreement between the United States and China. The 90-day deal, announced by the White House on 12 May, will see both nations reduce existing tariffs to 10%, a 24% cut from current levels, starting 14 May. This development has eased concerns of an abrupt trade escalation, offering renewed confidence to global investors.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking in Geneva, confirmed that both countries aim to avoid economic decoupling. “The consensus from both delegations is neither side wants to be decoupled,” Bessent stated. “What has occurred with these very high tariffs was the equivalent of an embargo, and neither side wants that. We do want trade. We want more balance in trade.”
Bitcoin Nears Record Highs as Sentiment Improves
Bitcoin, currently trading at $103,277, is now just 4.8% below its all-time high of over $109,800 set in January 2025. Analysts suggest the easing of trade tensions could help traditional stock markets and altcoins catch up to Bitcoin’s performance.
“Bitcoin has outperformed other risk assets in recent months, largely due to its insulation from tariff-related volatility,” said Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen. “With the latest progress in trade talks, we expect altcoins, US equities, and even the US Dollar Index to benefit from a renewed risk-on sentiment.”
Altcoins and Equities to Join the Rally
Barthere believes that the more constructive tone from both Washington and Beijing removes the risk of a “sudden re-escalation,” potentially paving the way for broader market recoveries. She pointed out that the crypto market’s resilience could now be complemented by gains in other risk assets, with altcoins in particular set for a strong rebound.
Nansen’s earlier forecast gave a 70% probability of crypto and stock markets bottoming out by June, dependent on the direction of trade negotiations. With the latest agreement in place, that scenario appears increasingly likely.
Tax Relief Could Act as a Further Catalyst
The possibility of a generous tax relief package in the US could add further fuel to the market rally. Barthere said any such package would need to include more than just an extension of expiring tax cuts. “We would need to see additional income tax reductions as well as corporate tax cuts,” she noted.
Secretary Bessent has hinted that such a policy could be unveiled by mid-July, potentially giving markets a significant boost in the second half of the year.
Bitcoin Eyes $150,000 Target
Encouraged by improving macroeconomic signals and emerging technical patterns, some analysts are calling for Bitcoin to reach as high as $150,000 in the coming months. A bullish “flag” formation on the weekly chart is being closely watched as a possible indicator of a breakout.
“Risk sentiment is shifting rapidly, and the removal of trade-related uncertainty sets the stage for strong gains,” said Barthere.
As the world’s largest cryptocurrency hovers near record levels, the broader market appears ready to follow, provided global economic cooperation continues on its current path.
