Bitcoin surged past $117,000 on Wednesday, marking a four-week high, as traders prepared for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision on interest rates. With markets overwhelmingly expecting a rate cut, attention has shifted to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC speech, which could fuel heightened volatility in the coming sessions.
Fed Rate Cut Odds at 100%
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are fully pricing in a rate cut at today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. There is a 96% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) cut, while odds of a deeper 50 bps cut sit at 4%. Prediction platform Polymarket shows similar sentiment, with bettors placing a 93% probability on a 25 bps reduction and 5% on a 50 bps move.
Both CME and Polymarket data suggest that traders expect multiple cuts by the end of the year, potentially setting the stage for further liquidity-driven rallies. However, some analysts caution that much of this policy shift may already be priced into Bitcoin’s recent run-up.
Powell’s Speech in Focus
Market participants are now turning their attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will address reporters after the rate decision. Powell has been under political pressure from President Donald Trump to ease borrowing costs and previously acknowledged that persistent inflation and a cooling labor market justify rate adjustments.
“Markets are locked on the FOMC Wednesday, with a 25 bps cut priced in,” private wealth manager Swissblock posted on X, noting that Powell’s tone will be closely scrutinized for signals about the Fed’s future policy path. The firm added that volatility is almost certain, with its Bitcoin Risk Index guiding whether BTC’s bullish momentum holds or reverses.
BTC Targets: Resistance at $118K
Traders and analysts are closely watching the $118,000 resistance level as the next key hurdle for Bitcoin’s upward momentum. Analyst AlphaBTC suggested BTC could briefly touch $118,000 before retracing, depending on the market’s reaction to the Fed announcement.
“Bitcoin keeps slowly grinding higher, now pushing into the 116.5K-118K resistance area,” crypto analyst Jelle commented, adding that a sustained break above $118,000 could pave the way for new all-time highs.
Data from TradingView shows Bitcoin actively testing the resistance zone between $117,500 and $118,500, which MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe described as a “positive sign.” He suggested that breaking above this band could trigger a run toward $120,000 and eventually challenge the previous all-time high at $124,500.
Downside Risks Remain
Despite the bullish outlook, Bitcoin’s near-term support levels remain crucial. Analysts highlight the $116,800–$114,500 range as an important zone that has held since September 10. A breakdown below this area could see Bitcoin retesting $112,000, a psychological level that aligns with the 100-day simple moving average.
For now, all eyes remain on the Fed decision and Powell’s remarks. Traders expect turbulence regardless of the outcome, with Bitcoin’s trajectory hinging on whether the $118,000 resistance finally gives way.
