Bitcoin’s rise past $112,000 in 2025 has reignited an old debate: who actually drives its price? Is it the whales with their vast holdings, the developers shaping its protocol, or the governments writing the rules? The answer is more complex than naming a single group. Bitcoin’s value remains the result of shifting influences, from big investors and innovation to regulation and sentiment.
Whales: The Market Movers
If anyone can nudge Bitcoin’s price, it is the whales. These investors, often funds, institutions or long-term holders from the early days, control thousands of BTC and continue to wield outsized influence.
The number of wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin reached 1,455 in May 2025, reflecting a fresh wave of accumulation. Institutional players account for a large share of this. Strategy alone now holds over 580,000 BTC, around 2.76 per cent of the total supply, while BlackRock has expanded allocations through its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. Together, they control close to 6 per cent of all Bitcoin in circulation.
But whales are not simply hoarders. They buy in bulk, take profits during rallies, and often offload as retail enthusiasm peaks. On-chain data shows that major corrections this year followed sizeable whale inflows to exchanges. Conversely, long periods of dormancy in whale wallets have coincided with upward momentum, including Bitcoin’s break past $110,000 in April.
There is also a split in behaviour. CryptoQuant data shows older whale addresses have realised just $679 million in profits since April, while newer players, including hedge funds and wealthy individuals, have cashed out more than $3.2 billion. This suggests early holders are consolidating for the future, while newer entrants trade more aggressively.
Whatever the strategy, whales continue to shape the tone and direction of Bitcoin markets.
Developers: Quiet Shapers of Price
Developers rarely make headlines, but when upgrades do happen, they have lasting effects on adoption and confidence. Bitcoin’s history is full of examples where technical change has influenced its valuation.
In 2017, the introduction of SegWit altered how data was stored in blocks, cutting transaction fees and laying the groundwork for the Lightning Network. The upgrade coincided with Bitcoin’s rally from $4,000 in August to nearly $20,000 by December.
Taproot followed in 2021, enabling more private and complex transactions. It was rolled out just days after Bitcoin hit $64,000. The price surge had many drivers, including ETF optimism and wider market conditions, but Taproot reinforced the sense that Bitcoin was maturing.
More recently, the rise of Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens in 2023 and 2024, enabled by Taproot, surprised many. Users began attaching data to individual satoshis, spawning NFTs and meme tokens within Bitcoin. At one point, these assets were worth more than $2 billion, while miner fees soared.
In 2025, developers are exploring new features such as covenants and opcodes like OP_CAT and OP_CTV. These could enable vaults and programmable spending, bringing Bitcoin closer to broader financial utility. While upgrades do not move prices on their own, they create the foundations for new use cases, which in turn influence investor confidence.
Governments: Not in Control but Still Powerful
No government controls Bitcoin, yet regulation remains a major factor in price action. Decisions by lawmakers and regulators can spark both rallies and downturns.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in 2024 was a watershed. Multiple funds won approval, and Bitcoin quickly surpassed $73,000 as billions flowed into new products. The signal was clear: institutions were firmly in the game.
But governments also create headwinds. In 2023 and 2024, the European Union proposed tighter surveillance rules for self-custodial wallets, sparking concerns about privacy and access. Markets reacted with a pullback, even though the move was not an outright ban.
Macroeconomic policy plays a role too. When the US Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in late 2023 and hinted at cuts in 2024, Bitcoin responded alongside other risk assets. Lower rates and a weaker dollar bolstered demand for hard assets, including crypto.
Even bans have not been decisive. China’s crackdown on trading and mining has not eradicated local demand. Over-the-counter desks, VPNs and offshore platforms keep the market alive. In fact, OTC volumes in China remain robust in 2025, underlining the resilience of a borderless asset.
Governments may not dictate Bitcoin’s price, but they continue to shape the environment in which it trades.
Beyond Institutions: The Role of Sentiment
While whales, developers and governments all play their part, Bitcoin’s price is also moved by sentiment. Retail excitement can fuel parabolic runs, while institutional caution can trigger sudden retreats.
Narratives now matter as much as fundamentals. The launch of ETFs brought record inflows but not always sustained rallies. Regulatory pressure in one region was offset by growth in another. Whale movements triggered fewer shocks when markets were calm. At times, surges were driven simply by themes such as AI hype or global instability.
This interplay makes Bitcoin unique. It is decentralised yet deeply influenced by multiple forces. Its price reflects not only supply and demand but also belief, fear and conviction in real time.
A Decentralised Tug-of-War
So who really controls Bitcoin’s price in 2025? The truth is that no single group does.
Whales dominate liquidity in thin markets. Developers quietly shape the protocol and its future. Governments and regulators create pressure or permission. Macroeconomic conditions set the backdrop for risk-taking. And retail and institutional sentiment turns all these elements into surges or slumps.
Bitcoin remains what it has always been: a decentralised network shaped by human behaviour. Its price is not a final verdict but a constantly shifting pulse, reflecting confidence, doubt and the global conversation around money.
